Decoding Trump Tariff: A Strategic Look at Indonesia

At Wellington Capital Advisory, we examine the resurgence of U.S. trade protectionism under President Trump’s second wave of tariff impositions. In this edition of the Wellington Snapshot, we trace the timeline and strategic rationale behind the tariffs from 2018 to 2025—highlighting their limited success in narrowing the U.S. trade deficit, but notable effectiveness in triggering bilateral negotiations. The report also illustrates how China has surpassed the U.S. as the world’s dominant trading partner and how the latest tariffs are reshaping global supply chains, unsettling financial markets, and creating policy challenges for key economies.

The analysis takes a closer look at Indonesia’s position—reflecting on its earlier strategies such as export diversification, targeted trade concessions, and active participation in regional partnerships to cushion past the first wave of tariff shocks. Looking ahead, the report outlines possible economic consequences for Indonesia, including risks to its trade surplus, a projected slowdown in export performance, and downward pressure on GDP. This snapshot serves as a strategic guide for stakeholders navigating the shifting dynamics of global trade. In depth as part of the report pack available here.

Decoding Trump Tariff_Wellington Snapshot.pdf

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Wellington Capital Advisory offers specialized services in market research, political risk assessment, and strategic advisory. With over a decade of operational experience in Indonesia and $1.5 billion in capital advised, Wellington provides support to investors and company owners, helping them adapt to policy shifts and external shocks like tariff escalations. Our work equips stakeholders with insights into regulatory trends, macroeconomic shifts, and negotiation strategies—critical for managing uncertainty in an evolving global trade environment.

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